In recent years, the development of Shenyang PVC board in China Construction Industry and plastic processing industry of polyvinyl chloride (PVC), the rapid growth in demand, especially in the 2003 China PVC anti-dumping recovering, high profitsattract a large number of investors to enter the field, the domestic PVC extension, newprojects have been launched. In 2005 China's PVC production capacity grew 46.38%,reaching a peak in recent years, in 2007 our country become the world's largest PVCproducer.
With the increase of production capacity of PVC in China, the relationship between supply and demand changes, a large number of dependence on imports has been significantly improved; at the same time, the PVC market prices decline, industry profitability declined, raw material supply problems highlight. But expansion, expansioncontinues, PVC production capacity continues to increase, but the domestic PVCequipment operating rate decreased gradually throughout the year 2008, the wholedevice operating rate dropped to less than 60%.
In 2008 the market price roller coaster
In 2008 China's PVC market has experienced a roller coaster, price volatility is veryobvious. In the first half of raw material prices in the background, PVC prices have gone up; the second half of the year by the financial crisis, the downstream demandserious atrophy, PVC price diving, more than 40% from the highest to the lowest drop.
At the beginning of 2008, influenced by the South snowstorm weather and transport during the Spring Festival, calcium carbide and PVC goods Sinotrans blocked, manyPVC companies start low, resulting in PVC supply reduced sharply, prices continued to rise, the market continued until 2008 before the spring festival.
After the Spring Festival in 2008, "raw material prices continued to rise, the marketprices continued to rise, the market supply is tight, abnormal market state relativestalemate demand growth continues to light" constructed, continued until 5 at the end of the month.
In 2008 June, with crude oil prices rose sharply, domestic petrochemical productsprices have relatively substantially rise, ethylene prices from 5 at the end of 20081480 dollars to 1520 dollars / ton (CFR Northeast Asia) up to 2008 early June 1550 dollars to 1600 dollars / ton (CFR Northeast Asia), pull the PVC foam board ethyleneprice in 2008 6 month rose 200 yuan / ton. PVC by calcium carbide method in mid,rose 300 yuan / ton late flat at 8650 yuan to 8750 yuan / ton.
The transport of dangerous chemicals Olympic venues surrounding area under strict control and price increases, the sharp rise in the cost and price of calcium carbide.Due to the power and inadequate supply of calcium carbide, PVC productionenterprises in Shandong, Hebei, Henan and other places to start the rate of only 30%~ 40%, the yield reduction and cost increase support of PVC by calcium carbideprices rose 150 yuan ~ 200 yuan / ton, ethylene prices rose 200 yuan / ton remained stable. Downstream processing products price is difficult to upgrade to the high price of PVC, it is difficult to accept, turnover continued to not flourishing, the marketstalemate pattern formation.
By raw materials prices are falling and domestic demand remains weak drag, the domestic PVC market prices continue to slide in October, output continued to decline,demand continues to shrink, the market continues to be weak. In 2008 to mid November, the bottom half of the domestic PVC prices dropped, East and Southern China calcium carbide PVC mainstream price straight down to 5000 yuan ~ 5200 yuan/ ton, ethylene act PVC prices also fell to 5200 yuan ~ 5350 yuan / ton. Since then,the circulation of social resources gradually less, in demand support under PVC market short-term Chonggao after a steep decline. But in 2008 the last months againto soar, it is difficult to determine the rise can support how long.
Having more variable
PVC industry belongs to the basic type and energy intensive industries, demand and energy prices a greater impact, and is the foundation of the national economy withchemical raw materials, so the economic development association is also very obvious.
The long run, the PVC industry after a long-term development in recent years and thenon rational development, short-term adjustment of the healthy development of the industry is a good thing. In the slow economic growth at home and abroad, the market downturn of the larger environment, accelerate the upgrading of production technology, improve the industry concentration degree, ready for the next cycle's arrival, is change the "crisis" as a "machine". Outlook 2009, due to the impact of uncertain factors, PVC market development there is a big variable.
The impact of the macroeconomic environment: there is a close relationship between the development of macro economy and the PVC industry, the rapid development of economy in the year, but also the rapid development of PVC industry, the substantial increase in demand of the year. In recent years, as China's economy has maintained a high growth rate, PVC industry has also obtained the considerable development.After entering the three quarter of 2008, as the global financial crisis affect the real economy, China's economic development is also affected to a certain extent, GDPgrowth is slowing, the great influence of the real estate industry to PVC industrysuffered a huge blow, the development of China's PVC industry is facing unprecedented difficulties. In 2009 the economic situation remains unclear, the PVC market recovery still need time.
Relevant policy implications: according to the 2008 central economic conference, the primary task of economic work in 2009 is to maintain stable and rapid economic development, adhere to a flexible and prudent macroeconomic policies, continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, pay attention to the comprehensive use of tax cuts, expand the central governmentinvestment and other means to increase support for security the people's livelihood,expanding domestic demand and transformation of development mode and structural adjustment. According to the forecast, in 2009 China's GDP growth rate will remain at 8% ~ 9% level, compared with the previous year slowdown. 4 - trillion investment to expand domestic demand, will be driving China's construction industry upstream,downstream of the PVC material will be as bright and gradually warmer. But at the same time, countries in the energy, investment, environmental protection, export etc.
